China Momentum Index
Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent
GDP growth (percent)
Official GDP
CMI estimates
16
May 2004:
11.5%
May 2007: 14.9%
14
Feb 2010: 12.2%
12
2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%
10
8
May 2007: 9.71%
6
Feb 2009: 6.2%
Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts
4
2
Nov 2015: 2.4%
0
2000
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
Jiang Zemin
Hu Jintao
Xi Jinping
Presidents
Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting
© GRAPHIC NEWS
China Momentum Index
Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent
GDP growth (percent)
Official GDP
CMI estimates
16
May 2004:
11.5%
May 2007: 14.9%
14
12
10
8
May 2007: 9.71%
6
Feb 2009: 6.2%
4
See below
2
0
2000
02
04
06
08
10
12
Jiang Zemin
Hu Jintao
Presidents
16
Feb 2010: 12.2%
14
12
2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%
10
8
Feb 2009: 6.2%
6
Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts
4
2
Nov 2015: 2.4%
0
2004
06
08
10
12
14
16
Hu Jintao
Xi Jinping
Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting
© GRAPHIC NEWS
China Momentum Index
Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent
GDP growth (percent)
Official GDP
CMI estimates
May 2007: 14.9%
16
May 2004:
11.5%
14
12
10
8
May 2007: 9.71%
6
4
See below
2
0
2000
02
04
06
08
Jiang Zemin
Hu Jintao
Presidents
16
14
Feb 2010: 12.2%
12
2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%
10
Feb 2009: 6.2%
8
6
Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts
4
2
2.4%
0
2008
10
12
14
16
Hu Jintao
Xi Jinping
Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting
© GRAPHIC NEWS