Huge El Niño could cause 450,000 deaths

Extreme heat caused by this year’s “Super” El Niño could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the ​globe in the six months through February 2027, ‌climate scientists are warning

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
25
24
26
27
28
29
30

Previous years

1991-2020 average

DAILY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN PACIFIC (°C)
El Niño is already strongest on record, several months before its expected peak, with temperatures 3.08°C above average on Sep 21 – beating previous record of 3.02°C set in 2015

Sep 21, 2026: 29.78°C – 3.08°C above average

Nov 19, 2015: 29.80°C – 3.02°C above average

El Niño monitoring region

TOP 20 COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO-RELATED HEAT DEATHS
(Projected, Sep 2026-Feb 2027)

Nigeria
Indonesia
Sudan
India
Brazil
DR Congo
Niger
Chad
Philippines
South SudanVietnam
Mali
Thailand
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Uganda
Pakistan
Ghana
U.S.
Cameroon

5,200
5,600
5,000
4,700
4,500
3,800
3,600
3,600
3,500
3,3003
1,400
5,600
6,500
7,900
10,000
10,000
13,300
15,800
17,500
19,300

Toll adds to early deaths already caused by climate-driven heat.
Many more deaths expected from droughts, wildfires and flooding

Source: Climate Impact Lab, NOAA OISST V2.1
Chart: ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine
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