Iran war harming global economy

Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, global
growth prospects have weakened, with declining gross domestic
product (GDP) forecasts pointing to a gloomy economic outlook

COMMODITY PRICES HAVE SOARED SINCE WAR BEGAN
% change since Feb 27, 2026

Energy
Non-energy

Gas Asia
Polypropylene
Polyethylene
Gas Europe
Methanol
WTI Crude*
Sulphur
Brent Crude*
Urea
Phosphate
Aluminium
Coal
Gas USA
Nickel
Zinc
Copper

80.8
54.5
54.3
43.2
42.6
37.9
35.6
30.0
25.0
24.0
18.6
18.2
6.3
6.2
5.7
1.3

Americans are not feeling pain of
gas increases to anywhere near
same extent as rest of world

Projected
global GDP
growth for
2026

3.4% BEFORE WAR

NOW
2.8% TIME-LIMITED

2.1% PROLONGED

DETAIL

GLOBAL GDP GROWTH
%, year-over-year

Q3
2025

Q4

Q1
2026

Q2
Q3
Q4

Q1
2027

Q2
Q3
Q4

4
3
2
1
0

Pre-conflict growth projection

Time-limited
disruption
projection

Prolonged
disruption
projection

*WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is benchmark for U.S. oil market
Brent serves as benchmark for European, African, and Middle Eastern oil markets

Sources: Reuters, Euronews, OECD, Investopedia
Data as of May 27, 2026
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