FIFA World Cup 2026 title hopefuls

Spain are considered the favourites to win the
tournament, with a 16.1% chance, while 2022 champions
Argentina have a 10.4% probability of retaining the title

WINNING FEELING
Predictions based on 25,000 simulations
by Opta’s Supercomputer, estimating probability
of each match outcome – win,
lose or draw – and chance
for each team to secure
progress through each
knock-out stage

% chance		QF	SF	Final	Winner
Spain		52.1	39.0	25.6	16.1
France		47.9	33.4	21.2	13.0
England		47.7	30.3	19.0	11.2
Argentina	45.2	30.3	18.1	10.4
Portugal		40.2	23.7	13.0	7.0
Brazil		38.2	22.1	12.3	6.6
Germany		33.8	20.2	10.6	5.1
Netherlands	29.5	15.2	7.9	3.6
Norway		27.2	14.5	7.4	3.5
Belgium		28.9	12.8	5.6	2.4

Spain have 75.3% chance of topping group,
while Argentina (73.0%), England (67.9%)
and France (60.3%) are also favourites
to progress as group winners.

Only 35.9% of simulations predict a nation lifting the World Cup for first time
Co-hosts USA (1.2%), Mexico (1.0%) and Canada (0.5%)
are unlikely to win World Cup based on predictions

Lamine Yamal ESP
Generational talent set
for World Cup debut

Sources: FIFA, OPTA
Picture: Getty Images
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