Russia: winner or loser in Iran war?
Despite losing another key ally, the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran appear to have given President Vladimir Putin an unexpected dividend, with Ukraine warning that an oil price surge will boost Russia’s war chest
LOSSES
Russia has been unable to provide military support for its allies
President Vladimir Putin
Ayatollah Ali Khameinei, Iran
Killed
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela
Imprisoned
Bashar al-Assad, Syria
In exile
GAINS
EU: April ban on new Russian gas contracts could be postponed
Ukraine
Depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles – could mean reduced arms supplies
India and China
Majority of oil and gas from Middle East – Russia offers alternative
U.S.
Trump suggests waiving “oil-related sanctions” to reduce prices
Iran: Provides intel on locations of U.S. warships – longer war keeps oil prices high
IRAN
RUSSIA
VENEZUELA
SYRIA
OIL PRICE (Urals crude)
$ per barrel
$100
80
60
40
Mar 2022: $97
Prices spike after Russia invades Ukraine
Jan 2026: $48
Lowest energy revenue since 2020
Mar 2026: $90
Price surge makes energy more costly for Ukraine and boosts Russian coffers
Benchmark $59/barrel: Basis for Russia’s 2026 budget – with reduced military spending – but had been expected to hit $40
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Pictures: Getty Images, Newscom
Sources: Politico, Bloomberg
© GRAPHIC NEWS