Asteroid collision odds tumble

Scientists have slashed the odds of Earth being struck by asteroid
2024 YR4 in the year 2032, from a 1 in 32 chance to a 1 in 59,000
chance – a probability of 3.1% down to 0.002% – virtually none

IMPACT PROBABILITY TIMELINE

Dec 27, 2024: Discovered by
Asteroid Terrestrial-impact
Last Alert System
(ATLAS) in
Chile

JAN 27
1 in 83
1.2%

JAN 31
1 in 63
1.6%

FEB 5
1 in 56
1.8%

FEB 10
1 in 48
2.1%

FEB 18
1 in 32
3.1%

FEB 19
1 in 67
1.5%

FEB 20
1 in 333
0.3%

FEB 24
1 in 25,000
0.004%

FEB 24
1 in 59,000
0.0017%

NASA says there
is 1.7% (1 in 59)
chance 2024 YR4 will hit moon
instead

Sources: New York Times, NASA, CNEOS
© GRAPHIC NEWS