Inflation risk if Trump wins

Economists have expressed fears that Republican Donald Trump’s economic plan would “reignite” inflation, which has plummeted since peaking during the Covid pandemic


Inflation rate (from previous December, %)

2008, Financial crisis: Barack Obama elected president

2011: U.S. credit rating downgraded

2017-2020: Trump’s first term as president

2018: Trump hits China with tariffs on $250 billion in goods in escalating trade war

2018-2019: Government shutdown for 35 days after lawmakers block $5.7bn for Trump's Mexico border wall

2021: Covid pandemic

2022: Russia invades Ukraine

2021-24: Presidency of Joe Biden

8 
7 
6
5
4
3	 
2
1	
0	
	08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

1.10 2.70 1.50 3.00 1.70 1.50 0.80 0.70 2.10 2.10 1.90 2.30 1.40 7.00 6.50 3.40


Impact of proposed tariffs (change in after-tax income, %)

Bottom 20% income group		Top 20%	Top 1%
-4.2%	-3.6%	-2.7%	-2.2%	-1.9%	-0.9%


If re-elected: Tariffs of up to 20% on foreign goods, 60% on imports from China, and 200% tax on some imported cars

Middle-income households will lose between $1,700 to $3,900 each year  


Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Investopedia, Peterson Institute 
Pictures: Getty Images
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