Taiwan war could decimate global economy

A potential conflict over Taiwan would have a cost so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics


IMPACT ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (in first year of scenario)*
   
Taiwan		-40%
		-12.2

Mainland China	-16.7
		-8.9

United States	-6.7
		-3.3

World		-10.2
		-5

$10 trillion
Estimated cost of Taiwan war to global economy

Chinese invasion of Taiwan draws U.S. into local conflict

Chinese blockade cuts Taiwan off from trade with rest of world

*Taiwan estimate based on recent conflicts, estimates for rest of world based on semiconductor, trade and financial shock models


Biggest hit to GDP comes from missing semiconductors – used in wide range of electronic devices and machinery

Taiwan is world’s biggest semiconductor manufacturer, producing over 60% of them globally, and over 90% of most advanced chips
        

Sources: Bloomberg, Euronews 
Picture: Newscom 
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