Impact of Russian victory in Ukraine

With critical aid for Ukraine snarled up by political infighting on both sides of the Atlantic, European officials are starting to think through the consequences of a Russian victory


SWEDEN
FINLAND
Baltic Sea
ESTONIA
RUSSIA
LATVIA
Kaliningrad (RUSSIA)
LITHUANIA
Moscow
GERMANY
POLAND
BELARUS
Kyiv
CZECH REP. 
UKRAINE
SLOVAKIA 
AUSTRIA
HUNGARY
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
Crimea Annexed by Russia in 2014
BULGARIA
Black Sea
TÜRKIYE
GEORGIA
200km 125 miles

NATO members
Disposition of Russian combat units
Before Feb 24, 2022
If Russia wins*

Extent of Russian air defences
Before Feb 24, 2022 
If Russia wins*


*Theoretical locations of units and air defences if Russia fully occupies Ukraine, based on assessments of current and projected Russian capabilities and intentions


Sources: Bloomberg, Institute for the Study of War 
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