El Niño threat to global rice prices

An El Niño-delayed monsoon in India and southeast Asia is projected to lower rice production in the critical region, causing a surge in export prices

GLOBAL RICE EXPORTS 2020-22
India 37.1%
Thailand 12.7%
Low rainfall, lower production
Vietnam 12.6%
Pakistan 8.5%
Largest production increase after 2022’s catastrophic floods
U.S. 5.5% 
Myanmar 4.6% 
China 4.3%
Others 11.4% 
Cambodia 3.2%

Production decline, but still set to export largest ever amount by a single country in 2023

EXPORT PRICES $/ton

India
Thailand
Vietnam
   
500 400 300
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 
9% 9% 9%
 
  Sources: USDA, Reuters Picture: Getty Images © GRAPHIC NEWS