China Covid deaths expected to surge

China could see 36,000 Covid deaths a day during the Lunar New Year holidays, making it one of the most deadly periods of the pandemic, according to new analysis


FORECAST FOR COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS IN CHINA
Cases	Deaths	Lunar New Year holidays


Cases (millions) 

Jan 13: Daily cases peak at 4.8 million

Jan 26
Daily deaths peak at 36,000

62 million
Total cases predicted in two weeks leading up to Jan 27

608,000
Estimate for cumulative deaths since Dec 1, 2022


5
4						Deaths (000s)
3							30
2							20
1							10
0							0
Dec 2022	Jan 2023	Feb	Mar	Apr

Data as of Jan 17 


Jan 14, 2023: China reports nearly 60,000 Covid-related deaths among hospitalised patients since early December. Before this announcement, China’s official Covid-19 death toll stood at 5,272 for entire pandemic


Sources: Airfinity, Bloomberg, Reuters 
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