FIFA World Cup favourites

South American heavyweights Brazil and Argentina are considered the favourites to win the World Cup, with a combined 36% chance, leaving their European rivals trailing


NATIONAL EXPECTATION
Predictions are based on over one million simulations that produce estimates of chance each team reaches particular stage of tournament


20%	16%		7% 		7% 	6% 	5% 	5%
Brazil 	Argentina 	Netherlands 	Spain 	Belgium	France 	Portugal


Teams from Europe and South America are predicted to dominate second round – with only Iran and Mexico anticipated to qualify from rest of world


LAST 16 HOPES: Chances of progressing from group stage, %

GROUP A
Netherlands 78 
Ecuador 54 
Qatar 41 
Senegal 28

GROUP B
England 64 
Iran 51 
USA 48 
Wales 37

GROUP C
Argentina 89 
Mexico 49 
Poland 39 
Saudi Arabia 23

GROUP D
France 71 
Denmark 67 
Australia 34 
Tunisia 29

GROUP E
Spain 72 
Germany 59 
Japan 39 
Costa Rica 30

GROUP F
Belgium 72 
Croatia 54 
Morocco 39 
Canada 36

GROUP G
Brazil 88 
Switzerland 54 
Serbia 46 
Cameroon 13

GROUP H
Portugal 74 
Uruguay 69 
South Korea 43 
Ghana 14


Source: Gracenote
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