Warning signs of global recession

The president of the World Bank warns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with slowdown effects from China’s pandemic lockdowns, could trigger a global recession


COMPOSITE PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEX (PMI)*

>50 = increase in activity 
<50 = decline in activity

April 2020: Sharp decline as pandemic lockdowns take hold

Russia invades Ukraine

May 2022: Economic growth in U.S. and Europe slowed in May, most sharply in UK, but Japan saw modest rise

70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10
0	
2020	2021	2022 May

UK	U.S.	Eurozone	Japan   


*Prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors 


Sources: BBC, Wall Street Journal, S&P Global         
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