Russian options for southern Ukraine

Russia is expected to cement control over occupied areas of southern Ukraine by introducing elements of Russian statehood and reinforcing its historical claims to the region

Quasi-state formation: Option identical to Russian model imposed in occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, referred to by Moscow as “people’s republics”

Immediate annexation: Mirrors Russian actions in Crimea in 2014. Creation of “people’s republic” may be viewed as intermediate step before annexation


POLAND
Lviv
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
ROMANIA

“Southern Rus”
Planned Russian state formed from occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces

BULGARIA
BELARUS
200km 125 miles
Kyiv
UKRAINE 
KHERSON
MOLDOVA
Odesa
Chernihiv
Kharkiv
ZAPORIZHZHIA
Dnipro
Crimea: Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014
BLACK SEA
RUSSIA

Donbas: Russia aims to fully control region and capture territory linking it to Crimea

LUHANSK
DONETSK
Mariupol
GEORGIA


“Novorossiya” (New Russia) – historical term for section of present-day Ukraine referred to by President Vladmir Putin as belonging to Russia 


Sources: Euromaidan Press, Financial Times, Washington Post 
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