Fertiliser threat to food security
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Massive trade sanctions on Russia, highly volatile natural gas prices,
and fertiliser exports from Russia and Ukraine grinding to a halt could lead to skyrocketing global food prices
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Natural gas price ($/million Btu*)
Black Sea urea fertiliser ($/tonne) 

6.282
900.50
962.48
4.703
352.88
2.514
418.75
441.50 
328.10
4.165
5.469
846.38

Mar 9: Record high natural gas prices in recent months force fertiliser giant Yara International to cut urea and ammonia production in Europe by 55%

*British thermal units

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Apr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2021 2022
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Haber-Bosch process: Converts nitrogen and hydrogen into ammonia – crucial step in creating fertilisers. Uses between 1% and 2% of all energy generated globally

Breakeven ratio: Around six for cereal crops – 6kg of grain needed to pay for 1kg of nitrogen fertiliser. Rise in price has pushed ratio to 10

42%: Proportion of world’s population fed by synthetic nitrogen fertiliser
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Sources: Financial Times, Index Mundi, Reuters, Trading Economics, YCharts
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