German election – coalition scenarios

Polls suggest five parties stand a chance of playing a role in government, with only the far-right Alternative for Germany shut out
         

The Left		7%
Die Linke

Olaf Scholz		25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Annalena Baerbock	16%
Greens

Armin Laschet		20%
CDU/CSU*

Christian Lindner	13%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
     
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 12%

Others			7%

Insa poll published Sep 4


“TRAFFIC-LIGHT” COALITION
SPD-Greens-FDP
SPD and Greens back looser budget policy but pro-business FDP would likely resist higher spending and increased borrowing, and argue for return to stricter budget policy

“JAMAICA” COALITION
CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP
CDU/CSU and FDP would aim to balance budget and restore borrowing limits, but Greens
want 10-year, €500bn investment programme and loosening of debt restrictions

“KENYA” COALITION 
CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens
Likely to lead to internal disputes as each member would have similar number of seats in Bundestag. With no clear “senior” and “junior” members, political decisions will be hard to reach

“GERMANY” COALITION 
CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP
Fiscal conservatism of CDU/CSU and FPD could clash with SPD pledges to reinstate wealth tax, introduce financial transaction tax, and raise minimum wage and pensions

SPD-Greens-Die Linke
Left-wing alliance is unlikely but cannot be ruled out


*Christian Democratic Union / Christian Social Union


Pictures: Getty Images
Sources: Stratfor, Bloomberg  
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