India’s slowdown blues

For almost half a decade Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi headed the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Now, the slowest expansion in six years threatens economic prospects


GDP growth (%, year-on-year)

May 2014: Narendra Modi assumes office

2014-16: Fall in crude oil price from $99 per barrel to $44 boosts economy

Nov 2016: Ban on high-value banknotes leads to job losses and drop in consumer demand

Jul 2017: Goods & Services Tax (GST) leads to massive job losses and production cuts in auto sector

Sep 2018: Shadow bank crisis triggers credit crunch, amplified by U.S.-China trade war

Jun 2019: Modi sets goal of India becoming $5 trillion economy by 2024 – up from current $2.8 trillion. GDP will have to grow by 12% a year

8
6
4
2
0 
Q1 	Q1 	Q1 	Q1 	Q1 	Q1
2014   	2015	2016 	2017 	2018 	2019

8.0 8.7	5.9 8.0 7.2 9.4 6.0 8.1 8.0 7.0 6.6 5.8 5.7
 


GDP per capita (current US$)

INDIA $2,020

INDONESIA $3,890

CHINA $9,800

SOUTH KOREA $31,000

AUSTRALIA $62,600
   

Sources: Bloomberg, CMIR, Reuters, World Bank 
Picture: Associated Press 
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