Sea level rise could hit 2 metres by 2100

Global sea levels could rise by more than two metres by the end of the century – resulting in the displacement of almost 200 million people – if global warming continues at its current rate, new research suggests


POPULATION DISPLACED BY 2100: Assuming 2m rise in sea level
(All numbers approximate)

North America 13m

Central America and Caribbean 1.5m

South America 8.5m

North and West Europe 16.5m

Africa 9m

Mediterranean Sea coast 8m

Gulf states 1.25m

South Asia 57m

Indian Ocean islands: 0.5m

CIS* 1.25m

East Asia 35m

SE Asia 33m

Pacific Ocean islands: 2.5m

*Commonwealth of Independent States


WHAT THE RESEARCH SAYS

If global temperature increase stays below 2°C (target set by Paris climate agreement)
On average, melting ice sheets would contribute estimated 26cm to sea level rise by 2100

Worst-case scenario: Five percent chance that contribution could be as much as 80cm. Rise could exceed 1m if other factors – melting glaciers and expansion of ocean water as it warms – are taken into account


If global temperatures increase by 5°C (where current trajectory for economic growth continues)
On average, melting ice sheets would contribute estimated 51cm to sea level rise by 2100

Worst-case scenario: Five percent chance that global sea level rise could exceed 2m – flooding up to 1.8 million sq km (1.2 percent of global land area) and displacing as many as 187 million people


Sources: The Conversation, The Royal Society 
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