Turkey set for tight election race

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party are well-placed to win the vote, but economic instability and an unusual alliance of opposition candidates could jeopardise his re-election bid


50.8% Share of opinion poll*
Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Justice and Development Party (AKP). Victory will ensure he assumes virtually unchecked authority of new executive presidency, narrowly approved in divisive referendum last year

NATION ALLIANCE: Three main opposition candidates promise to rehabilitate economy, roll back empowered presidency and restore rights eroded by Erdogan


30.1%
Muharrem Ince
Republican People’s Party (CHP). Former physics teacher draws support from traditional base of secular, liberal urban voters


10.5%
Selahattin Demirtas
Pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Arrested in 2016 on spurious terrorism charges, is leading campaign from jail


8.0% 
Meral Aksener
Iyi Party (Iyi)
Former hard line interior minister in 1990s, has reinvented herself as pro-democracy nationalist


0.4%
Temel Karamollaoglu
Felicity Party (SP)
Heads small Islamist party which gives appealing alternative to religious voters who oppose Erdogan


PARLIAMENT PROSPECTS: Elections for President and parliament held on same day for first time
AKP: 46.0%
CHP: 27.5%
HDP: 11.7%
Iyi: 9.0%
MHP: 4.8%
SP: 0.4%
Others: 0.6%

PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE: AKP, MHP (Nationalist Movement Party)
NATION ALLIANCE: CHP, Iyi, SP


*Foresight poll for Bloomberg News of 500 people conducted June 7-11, margin of error ± 3.5


Sources: Stratfor, Bloomberg, FT 
Pictures: AP 
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