FIFA World Cup favourites 

Brazil are considered the favourites to win the World Cup, with a 21% chance, according to a study of all teams’ relative strengths and previous performances

NATIONAL EXPECTATION: Predictions based on one million simulations by Gracenote, which estimates percentage chance of each World Cup match being a win, draw or loss for each team

Brazil 21% 
Spain 10% 
Germany 8% 
Argentina 8% 
France  6%
Colombia 5%
Peru 5%

Teams from Europe and South America are predicted to dominate second round – with only Mexico anticipated to qualify from rest of the world

LAST 16 HOPES: Group stage chances
GROUP A
Uruguay 77% Russia 60 Egypt 36 S. Arabia 27

GROUP E
Brazil 90% Switzerland 51 Serbia 31 Costa Rica 28

GROUP B
Spain 76% Portugal 58 Iran 35 Morocco 30

GROUP F
Germany 79% Mexico 60 Sweden 34 South Korea 27

GROUP C
France 69% Peru 68 Denmark 35 Australia 27

GROUP G
England 71% Belgium 71 Tunisia 32 Panama 26

GROUP D
Argentina 82% Croatia 57 Iceland 35 Nigeria 27

GROUP H
Colombia 77% Poland 50 Senegal 45 Japan 29

Source: Gracenote
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