Chinese space station to crash into Earth

China’s Tiangong-1 space station will come crashing back to Earth in days. While it is impossible to plot exactly where the 8.5-tonne module will impact, the chance of debris hitting anyone is tiny


Window for re-entry: Mar 31 to Apr 2 (est)

TIANGONG-1 ALTITUDE DECAY (Forecast by ESA as of Mar 27)
250
200
150
100
Mar 02, 2018 07 12 17 22 27 Apr 01

Altitude (km)
Observed 	Predicted
TIANGONG-1
Launched in 2011
No contact since 2016
Length: 12 metres
Weight: 8.5 tonnes


POTENTIAL RE-ENTRY AREA
Somewhere between latitude 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south

Due to geometry of orbit, Tiangong-1 spends more time near edges of band than crossing equatorial region of Earth. This leads to higher likelihood of re-entry occurring near edges of latitude band

43ºN
Equator
43ºS

80 60 40 20 0 				0 2 4 6 8
Population density (per sq km)		Impact probability (%)

Debris could be contaminated with toxic hydrazine rocket fuel


Source: European Space Agency (ESA) Picture: CNSA © GRAPHIC NEWS