Effects of North Korea Pacific nuclear test 

North Korea’s threat to conduct an atmospheric nuclear test in the Pacific would likely involve launching a ballistic missile over Japan

CHINA
Tokyo 
Pyongyang
NORTH KOREA
Possible missile path
JAPAN
PACIFIC OCEAN
Detailed area
1,000km 
600 miles


SCENARIO 1: Surface burst

Minimum burst height of 0.66km needed to create significant fallout

Destructive but localised impact on sea life. Could affect passing ships, shipping lanes and fishing zones

Likely remoteness of blast zone, dispersal and dilution would limit human exposure to radiation

SCENARIO 2: High-altitude burst

Minimizes collateral damage. No thermal radiation effects

Would allow North Korea to avoid having to rely on its still rudimentary warhead re-entry technology

Electromagnetic pulse effect could damage or disrupt radar, satellite and radio networks

SCENARIO 3: Missile failure
Accident or error could result in nuclear blast at location and altitude that differs from original intent

Radioactive fallout model
(surface burst, wind speed 24km/h)
1
10
100
1,000

100km 
60 miles

Figures indicate radiation dose in rads per hour*
Fireball radius
0.95km
Air blast
3.6km
Thermal radiation 7.9km
Data for 500-kiloton hydrogen bomb. *Fatal dose 1,000 rads per hour

Sources: Stratfor, NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein           © GRAPHIC NEWS