What “America First” could mean… President-elect Donald Trump’s “America First” could end a century of the “American Age” – America’s role to “guarantee peace and justice throughout the world,” launched by President Woodrow Wilson in January 1917 EUROPE: France, Germany, Netherlands and probably Italy are facing elections in 2017. Emergence of anti-establishment and far-right parties is likely to play to Russia’s advantage NATO: Trump’s comments that NATO’s collective defence is “obsolete” could embolden President Vladimir Putin. Following annexation of Crimea and backing of armed separatists in eastern Ukraine, the countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are bracing for Russian intervention. There is now an arc spreading through Baltic states to Ukraine that constitutes a zone of potential conflict Arc of potential conflict ALGERIA NIGERIA LIBYA POLAND EGYPT ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA UKRAINE SYRIA IRAQ SAUDI ARABIA RUSSIA AFGHANISTAN IRAN PAKISTAN YEMEN Camp Lemonnier JAPAN DJIBOUTI INDIA CHINA AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND NORTH KOREA Countries with threat of terrorism Countries with AFRICOM bases AFRICA: Central piece of American policy in Africa is very likely to become AFRICOM. Africa Command has at least 55 bases in 27 African countries, plus Spain and Italy, involved in fight against terrorist groups. U.S. gives $9.3bn in aid to African nations per year, and under African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) also provides tariff-free access to U.S. markets worth some $50bn. Trump’s opposition to free trade deals could end AGOA SYRIA: Trump has indicated he will abandon CIA aid for Syrian rebels to focus on defeating so-called Islamic State – seen as America’s greatest foreign threat. Rebels will turn to Saudi Arabia for aid and weapons to continue fight against Russian- and Iranian-backed President Bashar al Assad (above) IRAN: Unilaterally scrapping Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – pact to curb Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for ending sanctions – would give green light to Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Israel would be under pressure to act alone to deal with future Iranian nuclear bomb China and 12 other Asian countries, but not U.S. China-led trade CLIMATE CHANGE: Trump has called global warming a Chinese hoax. He has appointed Scott Pruitt (above) to head Environmental Protection Agency and reverse EPA’s “out-of-control anti-energy agenda that has destroyed millions of jobs” ASIA-PACIFIC: Trump’s pledge to bring jobs back to America spells bad news for Asia. Imposition of punitive trade tariffs will hurt Chinese exporters and likely result in tit-for-tat trade barriers imposed by Beijing. ScrappingTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – 12-nation trade pact covering annual trade of $27 trillion – will hand opportunities to China. With TPP gone, China’s President Xi Jinping (above) will promote trading bloc, which includes Japan, Australia, New Zealand, bloc will control 40% of world trade NORTH KOREA: By 2020 – within President Trump’s four-year term – many experts believe that North Korea, which has already conducted five nuclear tests, may have capability to build and launch a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. mainland Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Mother Jones, OECD, Spiegel, Stratfor, The Atlantic Pictures: Associated Press