Challenge to gloomy Brexit views

A report published by “Economists for Brexit” – a group of notable British academics and financial-sector economists – estimates the UK economy could be up to 4% larger by 2030 if it left the European Union

Estimated effect on GDP by 2030 of leaving EU and trading under WTO agreement with EU, similar to that enjoyed by U.S. and China

Economists for Brexit

*GDP changes calculated at 2015 values. £1,808,712m in 2014-15

GDP up £72.3bn*4%

-3.1% Down £56.1bn Centre for Economic Performance / LSE

-3.5% £63.3bn Confederation of British Industry / PwC

-3.9% £70.5bn Oxford Economics

-5.1% £92.2bn OECD

-7.5% £135.7bn HM Treasury

Timeline of possible exit negotiations

Jun 23, 2016: UK holds referendum on EU membership

2016: UK gives two years’ notice to leave under Article 50 of
Lisbon Treaty

2017-18:  Withdrawal agreement approved by EU Council

2019-20:  EU treaties cease to apply – UK leaves EU

Sources: LSE, CBI, Oxford Economics, OECD, HM Treasury, PwC, Statista

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