Brexit battle of the numbers

Britain’s Treasury says the UK economy will shrink by between 3.8% and 9.5% – a loss of £68.7 billion to £171.9 billion – if it leaves the EU, due to falls in trade and foreign investment (FDI)

Treasury models: Loss of Gross Domestic Product by 2030

Norway option Britain remains part of European Economic Area, like Norway

0% 2 4 6 8 10 £68.7bn

DOWN 3.8%

Canada option Bilateral free trade agreement with
EU – like Canada, Switzerland and Turkey

DOWN 6.2%

WTO option Membership of World Trade Organization,
no trade deals with EU

DOWN 9.5% £171.9bn

Financial crisis Effect of 2008-09 eurozone crisis
on Britain’s GDP

DOWN 5%

0% 2 4 6 8 10

£75.1bn

Foreign direct investment in UK (2014)

EEA and Switzerland 5%

U.S. 24%

Rest of world 23%

EU 48%

Effect of Brexit on FDI

Norway option Cuts of 5%

Canada option 20%

WTO option 25%

Effect per household

Treasury calculates annual loss of GDP per household after 15 years

Norway option £2,600

Canada option £4,300

WTO option £5,200

How Treasury numbers compare to other forecasts

Centre for Economic Performance, LSE: Brexit-induced fall in FDI could cause 3.4% decline in real income – about £2,200 of GDP per household

Oxford Economics: Annual loss of 0.1% to 3.9% of GDP by 2030

Sources: HM Treasury, NS, Eurostat, OECD, LSE, Oxford Economics