China Momentum Index

Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent

GDP growth (percent)

Official GDP

CMI estimates

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

May 2004: 11.5%

May 2007: 9.71

May 2007: 14.9%

Feb 2009: 6.2%

Feb 2010: 12.2%

Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts

Nov 2015: 2.4%

2015, fourth quarter: 6.8%

Jiang Zemin Hu Jintao Presidents Xi Jinping

Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by UK-based Fathom Consulting