China Momentum Index

Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent

GDP growth (percent)

Official GDP

CMI estimates

16

May 2004:
11.5%

May 2007: 14.9%

14

Feb 2010: 12.2%

12

2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%

10

8

May 2007: 9.71%

6

Feb 2009: 6.2%

Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts

4

2

Nov 2015: 2.4%

0

2000

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

Jiang Zemin

Hu Jintao

Xi Jinping

Presidents

Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting

© GRAPHIC NEWS

China Momentum Index

Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent

GDP growth (percent)

Official GDP

CMI estimates

16

May 2004:
11.5%

May 2007: 14.9%

14

12

10

8

May 2007: 9.71%

6

Feb 2009: 6.2%

4

See below

2

0

2000

02

04

06

08

10

12

Jiang Zemin

Hu Jintao

Presidents

16

Feb 2010: 12.2%

14

12

2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%

10

8

Feb 2009: 6.2%

6

Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts

4

2

Nov 2015: 2.4%

0

2004

06

08

10

12

14

16

Hu Jintao

Xi Jinping

Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting

© GRAPHIC NEWS

China Momentum Index

Using a trio of “easy-to-measure” indicators – bank lending, rail freight volumes and electricity production – the China Momentum Index estimates that real growth in China’s economy is as low as 2.4 percent

GDP growth (percent)

Official GDP

CMI estimates

May 2007: 14.9%

16

May 2004:
11.5%

14

12

10

8

May 2007: 9.71%

6

4

See below

2

0

2000

02

04

06

08

Jiang Zemin

Hu Jintao

Presidents

16

14

Feb 2010: 12.2%

12

2015, fourth
quarter: 6.8%

10

Feb 2009: 6.2%

8

6

Nov 2014: Central Bank cuts benchmark one-year deposit interest rate from 3% to 2.75%. First of six interest rate cuts

4

2

2.4%

0

2008

10

12

14

16

Hu Jintao

Xi Jinping

Source: China Momentum Index is calculated by Fathom Consulting

© GRAPHIC NEWS