Global trade falls to recession levels

The OECD* projects trade growth at 2% this year, improving to 3.6% next year. In only five of the past 50 years has global trade grown at 2% or less, each time coinciding with a world economic recession
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% change on previous year Global trade Global GDP

-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2.4% 12.3% 0.6% 2001 recession: Unemployment rate continues to rise until June 2003 
1.8% Trade: Should grow at double speed of GDP† -2.16% -10.4% 2009 recession: Sub-prime loan losses in 2007 trigger worst global recession since World War II 2.0% Oct 2015: China’s imports fall by 18.8% from year earlier, exports shrink 6.9% 2.9% 4.8%
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Gross Domestic Product (projected percentage change, 2016/17)
India  7.4
China 6.2
Indonesia 5.5
Costa Rica 4.1
Turkey 4.1
Lithuania 3.7
Korea 3.6
Ireland 3.5
Latvia 3.5
Poland 3.5
Slovakia 3.5
Colombia 3.3
Israel 3.3
Mexico 3.3
Hungary 3.1
Sweden 3.0
Estonia 2.9
Iceland 2.9
Luxembourg 2.9
Netherlands 2.7
Slovenia 2.7
Spain 2.5
Czech Rep. 2.4
United States 2.4
Canada 2.3
New Zealand 2.3
UK 2.3
OECD 2.3
Greece 2.1
Germany 2.0
South Africa 2.0
Denmark 1.9
Norway 1.9
Euro area 1.9
Brazil 1.8
Austria 1.7
Russia 1.7
Belgium 1.6
Finland 1.6
France 1.6
Switzerland 1.6
Portugal 1.5
Italy 1.4
Japan 0.5

*Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development †Angel Gurria, OECD secretary-general
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook database

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