Vladimir Putin’s new art of war The conflict in Ukraine is described as hybrid warfare. A broad range of hostile tactics – of which traditional military force is only a part – are being choreographed to achieve political and strategic goals President Vladimir Putin: Views break-up of Soviet Union as retrograde step exploited by Russia’s adversaries Valery Gerasimov: Chief of Russia’s general staff since 2012. “Conflict now involves the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian and other non-military measures” – 2013 ------------------ Maskirovka: Conflict is waged by covert, deniable, masquerades, e.g. masked commandos without insignia – so-called little green men – and humanitarian convoys to relieve areas under siege Salami tactics: Each slice of salami appears not to be worth major conflict, successive slices eventually achieve goal of regional dominance Tactics, Mar-Aug 2014: Crimea annexed • Russia enters Donbas area arming Donetsk and Luhansk separatists • Russian agents act with separatists to seize administrative buildings and other facilities • Russia sends surface-to-air missile systems Propaganda: Pro-Russian social media campaign • Kremlin claims that neo-Nazis are at heart of new government in Kiev • Annual budget of global news network Russia Today boosted to $300 million Provocation: Number of incursions by Russian military aircraft over NATO borders tripled in past year Rhetorical threats: Regular reminders that Russia is rebuilding its nuclear arsenal Cyber espionage: Since 2010 Ukrainian governmental computer systems infected by spyware known as Snake. Over 700 EU energy utilities hit by Russian malware virus, Energetic Bear, that allows hackers to potentially take control of power plants ---------------- under rebel contro Eastern Ukraine: 29,300 pro-Russian separatists backed by some 14,400 Russian troops Jul 17, 2014: Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 shot down killing all 281 people on board Ukraine border: Russian troops estimated at 55,800 Mariupol Luhansk Donetsk Debaltseve DONETSK REGION LUHANSK REGION DONBAS AREA UKRAINE RUSSIA SEA OF AZOV 50km 30 miles ------------------ NATO members Zapad-2013: Six-day exercise in Russia, Belarus and Kaliningrad involves 96,300 troops in Sep 2013. Exercise, seen as dress rehearsal for future conflict in Ukraine,includes strategic bomber activity along Finnish border and live target firing in Barents Sea Cyprus: Kremlin strikes deal with EU member to use port and air base Crimea: Annexed by Russia in March 2014. Russian troops estimated at 29,400 Detail Kaliningrad UKRAINE RUSSIA LITHUANIA BELARUS POLAND ROMANIA MOLDOVA BULGARIA TURKEY GREECE ALBANIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA LATVIA ESTONIA FINLAND SWEDEN NORWAY Moscow St Petersburg Kiev BARENTS SEA MEDITERRANEAN SEA BLACK SEA 600kms 325 miles ------------------ Sources: IHS Jane’s, IISS, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Jamestown Foundation Pictures: Associated Press, Getty Images