October 15, 2010. Copyright 2010, Graphic News. All rights reserved FULL DATA SET AT END OF STORY Car sales dive in Western Europe but should bottom-out in 2011 By Neil Winton LONDON, October 15, Graphic News: New car sales in Western Europe dropped more than 10 percent in September as the impact of huge government subsidies to boost the market by scrapping old ones finally petered out. Sales in the third quarter fell 13.5 percent, compared with the same period last year. But the prospects for the industry look to be remarkably resilient when you consider economic prospects are shaky for many, and European governments are slashing and burning spending plans. European consumers, worried about their jobs, are closing their wallets and concentrating on necessities rather than splurging on gleaming new cars. After all, most cars nowadays will generate a positive nod if their owners say "Will it get me through one more year." According to Peter Schmidt, editor of pan-European fortnightly newsletter Automotive Industry Data, car sales for the whole year will fall by between a relatively modest six and seven percent. This compares with a consensus last year that sales would dive more than 10 percent in 2010. Schmidt expects the ship will steady in 2011, with a small fall of less than two percent, but he doesn't see pre-2007 recession levels being regained until at least 2014. France's Renault has been the standout performer so far in 2010, jumping over Ford and GM's Opel-Vauxhall in the market share pecking order to third place behind Germany's VW at the top and Peugeot-Citroen, also of France. A big factor behind Renault's improvement -- its market share in the first nine months of 2010 jumped to about 10 percent from 8.5 percent in the same period last year -- was the success of its Dacia brand, which produces small, cheap cars, mainly in Romania. But AID's Schmidt said Renault's performance is in danger of running out of steam. Its first nine months sales were up nearly 13 percent, but fell 12 percent in September. Fiat performed poorly. The Italian company was a big winner from government cash for clunkers schemes last year, so sales of little Pandas and Puntos took a comparative hit. Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne reckoned 2011 would at least not be any worse than this year in the market as a whole, with Western European sales of around 12.5 million. But Fiat is delaying the launch of its new Panda until January 2012. "Launching new products in a market that is so structurally weak makes no sense. We are saving our ammunition for a recovery," Marchionne said. Industry forecaster J.D.Power still worries that this modest performance might be derailed by the dreaded double-dip recession. "We do not expect that 2011 will beat the 2010 market either. Uncertainty continues over the impact of the austerity measures now being adopted by European governments and ongoing sovereign debt worries; the risk of a double dip recession certainly cannot be overlooked," said J.D.Power analyst Jonathon Poskitt. ------------------------------------------ FULL DATA SET Registrations of new cars in Europe fell 9.6% from a year earlier to 1.23 million vehicles in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of declines after the expiration of state-backed scrapping incentives. Changes in sales September 2010 compared with September 2009 AUSTRIA +5.9% BELGIUM +3.5% BULGARIA -23.8% CZECH REPUBLIC +8.7% DENMARK +36.3% ESTONIA +28.0% FINLAND +28.6% FRANCE -8.2% GERMANY -17.8% GREECE -49.9% HUNGARY +11.4% IRELAND +93.9% ITALY -18.9% LATVIA +79.6% LITHUANIA +55.4% LUXEMBURG -5.6% NETHERLANDS +36.1% POLAND +12.1% PORTUGAL +15.1% ROMANIA +1.2% SLOVAKIA +9.3% SLOVENIA +2.6% SPAIN -27.3% SWEDEN +34.6% UNITED KINGDOM -8.9% ICELAND +15.8% NORWAY +16.9% SWITZERLAND +7.7% Source: ACEA -------------------- /ENDS