April 7, 2008. Copyright 2008, Graphic News. All rights reserved

Time for Belarus to come in from the cold
By Joanna Griffin

LONDON, April 7, Graphic News: During his more than a decade in power, Belarussian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has largely kept the rest of the world at armÕs length. With economic uncertainty on the horizon, however, the man who has been called EuropeÕs last dictator may find he now needs to make some friends rather than merely silence his enemies.

One possibility is the European Union, which has kept the door open for the former Soviet state provided that Lukashenko offers some guarantees of democratisation. Another is Russia, even though MoscowÕs on-off enthusiasm for Minsk threatens to cool as fast as its cheap supplies of energy to the republic are running out.

Either way, Lukashenko is likely to play a waiting game. He recently shrugged off EU demands to make permanent the release of dissident Alexander Kozulin to attend his wifeÕs funeral, disappointing Western observers who had hoped the freedom granted to other political prisoners indicated a softening of his attitude towards his critics.

His governmentÕs recent request that the United States send home some of its diplomats to avoid their expulsion signalled that neither is Lukashenko is any hurry to embrace Washington over its sanctions on the state oil company and demands to free political prisoners.

The bravura stance is nothing new. In 2006 Lukashenko dismissed criticism that his unprecedented re-election to a third term was flawed, after independent poll monitors were expelled and the independent media all but silenced in the run-up to the vote. Kozulin, a rival presidential candidate, was jailed for organising opposition protests. 

ÒAn authoritarian style of rule is characteristic of meÓ, Lukashenko said in 2003, and he has remained true to his word, not only censoring the press and silencing his critics but amending the constitution to strengthen his hold over 10 million Belarussians.

Born on August 30, 1954, Lukashenko was brought up by his single mother in a poor village in eastern Belarus. He graduated from agricultural college and served in the Soviet Army from 1980-1982 before working as the manager of a collective farm. 

He entered politics in the late 1980s and in 1994 won the republicÕs first democratic election. Two years later he disbanded a parliament that opposed an increase in his power, and returned a new one dominated by loyalists. After his second poll victory in 2001, RussiaÕs Vladimir Putin was one of the few world leaders to congratulate him. 

After a controversial referendum in 2004 overturned the two-term limit, Lukashenko began campaigning for a third term as president. While many backed Lukashenko for maintaining political and economic stability, this time an opposition movement dared to challenge their president, staging widespread protests that attracted world attention.

ÒWe will wring their necksÓ, Lukashenko said of his opponents, Òas one might a duck.Õ A promised Òcolour revolutionÓ such as in Ukraine or Georgia never materialised.

Then, as ever, LukashenkoÕs strategy has been to keep Belarus isolated in a Soviet-style time warp, but this may not be possible for much longer. Minsk needs cheap energy from Moscow to maintain the status quo but Russian oil giant Gazprom has indicated that in future this may not flow quite so freely. Without Moscow as its big best friend, Belarus could start to find the EU more appealing.
/ENDS