July 23, 2003. Copyright, 2003, Graphic News. All rights reserved

Cuba preparing to celebrate 50th anniversary of CastroÕs revolution
By Joanna Griffin

LONDON, July 23, Graphic News:  As Cuba approaches the 50th anniversary of the takeover by Fidel Castro, there are few signs that its president is in any mood to change the ways that have made the Caribbean island a thorn in the side of the United States during a half century of mutual suspician and recrimination.

The anniversary comes as the ever reluctant dance partners are again holding each other at armsÕ length: Cuba has restricted dollar transactions, proof again of its will to independence despite the hardship it has faced since the fall of the Soviet Union. The U.S., meanwhile, has stepped up its anti-Castro rhetoric and is reportedly increasing help to dissidents on the island.

That Cuba has endured so far is remarkable. When CastroÕs forces launched an armed attack on dictator Fulgencio Batista on July 26, 1953, few would have predicted that his revolution would survive CIA dirty tricks, assassination attempts and crippling trade embargos, and make it into the 21st century as the last socialist outpost in the western hemisphere.

But, despite the popular image of vintage Chevrolets weaving through streets lined with shabby mansions and stores crammed with products straight from the 1960s, it would be wrong to presume that time has stood still in CastroÕs Cuba. It is rather that its existence has been marked by two constants, the first of which is a complex relationship with the United States.

That Cuba was not going to be a pushover was evident in 1961 when Cubans loyal to Castro forced back CIA-backed exiles in the Bay of Pigs invasion. But U.S. trade embargos since 1962 have taken a heavy toll, particularly since the Soviet subsidies ran out. Cuba has got by partly by removing the ban on dollars in 1993 and nurturing an expanding tourism industry.

Nevertheless, tough food rations and hardship in a country where the average salary is around $14 a month have led increasing numbers to bolt for Florida, just 100 miles away. In 1980 Castro permitted 125,000 people to leave in the Mariel Boatlift, but the impact of the continuing exodus of Cubans on flimsy rafts in 1994 led the two countries to sign a deal whereby 20,000 Cubans a year would be granted visas to live and work in the United States.

The growing economic and political weight of AmericaÕs Cuban community further complicates matters. A longstanding enmity came to a head in 1999, when exiled Cubans fought to keep Elian Gonzalez, a six-year-old boy whose mother had died trying to flee to Cuba, in Florida. Elian eventually went home to Cuba with his father, and became an emblem of the revolution. On the other hand, the constant flow of dollars from Miami helps to keep many Cubans afloat. In 1996 Washington introduced the Helms Burton law, banning U.S. firms from trading in Cuba.

The other constant is Castro. Nearly 77, he appears less revolutionary in army fatigues than suited grandfather trying to secure the achievements of a lifetime. These include a health service so good that it has brought an influx of Òhealth touristsÓ from abroad, high literacy, and low crime, though the parallel dollar economy has fostered racketeering and prostitution.

Castro has held on by maintaining control over all aspects of life on the island, including the media. An opposition crackdown in April was seen as the harshest in years after 70 dissidents received long prison sentences, and three ferry hijackers were executed at dawn. For the first time the EU, CubaÕs biggest trading partner, joined in with international condemnation, while expressing surprise that Castro should apparently shoot himself in the foot.

Were these the desperate actions of a veteran leader in the twilight of his rule? No one, not even Castro, knows what will happen when he goes. None of his possible successors has the same charisma. The U.S., meanwhile, cannot keep its own citizens away from the island forever, and there are rumours that some American firms are packed and ready to move in as soon as CastroÕs rule ends. It is to be hoped that any transition does not unleash chaos.

For the time being, however, Cuba remains the most paradoxical of places: an island that is still out in the cold, but where the sun always shines.
/ENDS