April 1, 2004. Copyright, 2004, Graphic News. All rights reserved How to pick a Grand National winner By Midge Todhunter LONDON, April 1, Graphic News: If sticking a pin in the list of runners for the Grand National is your method of how to place your bets, some interesting pointers from a recent survey may at least reduce your list of horses to choose from. While some of the research details add up to common sense, other statistical evidence gathered on racehorses competing in jump racing appears bizarre. According to the stats, sunny weather on the day of the race increases the risk of fallers -- rain decreases it. Horses which have been in training most of their young lives appear to be less susceptible to injury; and four out of five fractures occur at home in training rather than the racetrack, but only 7.4 per cent of fractures have a fatal outcome. In a large stable with around 100 horses, the trainer can expect at least one fracture a month. And a horse having its first race over hurdles is five times more likely to fall than one who has run over hurdles before. But perhaps the most telling signs of those runners to avoid can be spotted immediately before the race. The stats say a racehorse which jig-jogs around the paddock, or sweats and gets visibly uptight in the preliminaries, is ten times more likely to fall during the race than a horse that walks calmly around the parade ring. One of the main considerations is the so-called Aintree factor. Statistics indicate that some horses -- and definitely some jockeys -- become Aintree-wise, and are naturally good at finding a safe route around what is one of the most daunting jump-race circuits in the world. A horse that has previously finished fourth, fifth, or sixth in the Grand National and is then paired with a jockey with a good Aintree record, can often result in a winning team. Jumping, of course, is the name of the game. There is always a cavalry charge to the first three fences, and horses fall unexpectedly here because the early pace of the race means these fences have been taken too fast. A horse taken above and beyond its natural cruising speed is much less likely to get its landing gear down at the right time. Picking a steadier horse can pay dividends here. The final, crucial factor is the going on the day. The ground conditions can make a vast difference to the performance of any horse. Few horses fail to run some kind of race, except in extreme conditions, but some definitely cope better with soft or fast ground than others, and this can make up for a difference of perhaps a stone (14lbs / 6.35kg) or more in the official handicap. A large dollop of good luck is the only other ingredient youÕll need! /ENDS