June 13, 2002. Copyright 2002. Graphic News. All rights reserved.

Bush gives lift-off for Son of Star Wars

LONDON, June 13, Graphic News: The U.S. National Missile Defence (NMD) system -- the so-called ÒSon of Star WarsÓ -- is set to go into overdrive following the Bush AdministrationÕs withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty.

President George W. Bush plans to take full advantage of the opportunity with the previously prohibited construction of six underground silos for missile interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska. But whether effective U.S. defensive systems against missiles launched by Òrogue statesÓ and extremists could ever be deployed remains a matter of vigorous controversy.

The ABM pact -- which for 30 years was regarded as a cornerstone of nuclear arms control -- was signed by the United States and the former Soviet Union in 1972, limiting the two countriesÕ development of antimissile defences.

ÒThe president, to his great credit, has created the conditions under which we can do what he said he was determined to do back when he ran for office -- deploy missile defence,Ó said national security analyst Frank Gaffney, a conservative Republican and leading missile defence advocate.

But Dr. David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists countered that the technology is error-prone and not ready for deployment: ÒTechnology remains the key barrier to building missile defences that are effective against real-world attacks.Ó

Adding to criticsÕ concerns, the administration has decided to classify as secret details of targets and countermeasures to be used in future missile defence flight tests, thus making it harder to evaluate the systemÕs progress.

Two teams -- one led by Boeing focused on system engineering and integration, the other by Lockheed Martin concentrating on battle management issues -- have recently been created to advise the Pentagon on building a ÒlayeredÓ NMD system following the demise of the ABM Treaty.

The missile shield currently on the drawingboard envisages a three-stage plan costing up to $150 billion. Phase one, which has a 2002-2007 budget allocation of $46.36 billion, will see 20 ground-based interceptors (GBIs) installed in silos at a site in Alaska. These GBIs are intended to defend the U.S. against tens of warheads. 

The second stage will see the number of GBIs in Alaska increased to 100 and the upgrade of Fylingdales early-warning radar. Together with a radar station at Thule in Greenland, Fylingdales will track warheads launched towards North America from the so-called Òaxis of evilÓ, North Korea, Iraq or Iran. Phase three will see new technology to counter modernised missile warheads with decoys and multiple entry vehicles. This may consist of 125 interceptors in Alaska and a similar number at an additional site.

The layered defence concept will integrate satellites to detect enemy missiles and space-based or airborne lasers to destroy missiles during their launch and boost stage; new generation Raytheon SM-3 missiles and GBIs to destroy missiles during their midcourse stage; and Theater High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) or next generation Patriot missiles to stop the warheads in their terminal phase.

However, flight tests of THAAD and GBIs have left something to be desired. Between 1995 and 1999, 11 developmental flight tests were performed, including eight in which an intercept was attempted. After the first six flight intercept tests failed, the program was threatened with cancellation. Finally, in 1999, THAAD had two successful flight intercept tests. It is unlikely that the first THAAD system will now be deployed before 2010.

GBI test flights have done better. Since 1997, the ground-based midcourse program has conducted eight major flight tests of which four of the $100 million tests were successful. The system requires a new, more powerful booster rocket than the modified Minuteman currently being used in tests. Indeed, on December 13, just hours after President Bush announced plans to withdraw from the ABM Treaty, a test of the new booster had to be aborted and the missile destroyed in flight for safety reasons because it flew off course.

Despite the Bush administrationÕs push for missile defense, critics say the only system likely to be ready by 2008 is a ground-based system only capable of shooting down short-range missiles.
/ENDS

Sources: IISS, Federation of American Scientists, Center for Defense Information, Aviation Week and Space Technology