November 12, 2001. Copyright 2001. Graphic News. All rights reserved.

Bin Laden nuclear threat ÒcredibleÓ

LONDON, November 12, Graphic News: Osama Bin Laden is reported to have claimed, in an interview with a leading Pakistani newspaper, Dawn, that he has nuclear and chemical weapons and might use them in response to U.S. attacks on Afghanistan. 
However, reports that the al-Qaeda terrorist network has access to nuclear ÒsuitcaseÓ bombs or any other weapons of mass destruction has been played down by Britain, Russia and Pakistan.
UK Defence Minister Geoff Hoon said on Sunday that bin Laden may have nuclear materials, but probably does not have the capability to build a bomb. President Vladimir Putin also said he thought it was ÒunlikelyÓ that Bin Laden possessed weapons of mass destruction, and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf told reporters at the United Nations that he could Ònot imagineÓ that the al-Qaeda leader had the capability to either produce or store nuclear weapons. 
The interview quoted Bin Laden as saying: ÒI wish to declare that if America used chemical or nuclear weapons against us then we may retort with chemical and nuclear weapons. We have the weapons as a deterrent.Ó
The testimony of Jamal Ahmad al-Fadl, native of Sudan and ex-bin Laden associate, first revealed bin LadenÕs interest in nuclear weapons at last yearÕs trial of the first bombers of the World Trade Center. He detailed his extensive but unsuccessful efforts to obtain $1.5 million of enriched uranium for al-Qaeda during  and after 1993-94 through contacts in Khartoum.
Bin LadenÕs claim is seen as ÒcredibleÓ by Yossef Bodansky, a journalist with Israeli intelligence connections, who is head of the Congressional Task Force on Non-Conventional Terrorism in Washington. In 1999 he reported that bin Laden almost certainly had acquired portable nuclear weapons, very heavy, but able to fit in a normal briefcase or suitcase.
The question now is whether bin Laden has Òa few,Ó as Russian intelligence seems to think, or Òover 20,Ó a figure cited by intelligence services of moderate Arab regimes. ÒThere is no longer much doubt that bin Laden has finally succeeded in his quest for nuclear suitcase bombs,Ó said Bodansky.
Members of bin LadenÕs al-Qaeda network acquired the devices through Chechnya, paying the Chechens $30 million in cash and two tons of Afghan heroin, with a U.S. street-value of about $70 million, said Bodansky.
The allegations corroborate 1998 testimony by former Russian security chief Alexander Lebed to the U.S. House of Representatives. Lebed said that 43 nuclear suitcases from the former Soviet arsenal, out of a total number of 132 developed for the KGB in the 1970s, have vanished since the collapse of the former Soviet Union a decade ago. 
In an earlier interview with the CBS newsmagazine Sixty Minutes, Lebed said: ÒI donÕt know their location. I donÕt know whether they have been destroyed or whether they are stored or whether theyÕve been sold or stolen, I donÕt know.Ó
Lebed stated that these devices were made to look like suitcases, could be detonated by one person within 30 minutes -- and could kill up to 100,000 people. According to Lebed, he learned of the existence of these weapons developed for special operations only a few years before. While national security adviser to President Yeltsin he commissioned a study to report on the whereabouts of these devices.
The bombs, measuring 60 x 40 x 20 centimeters (24 x 16 x 8 inches), had been distributed among special Soviet military intelligence units belonging to the GRU, the Soviet/Russian military intelligence service, Lebed said.
The size of a small bomb depends on the critical mass of its fuel -- the amount necessary for a nuclear chain reaction to become self-sustaining. As the nuclei of isotopes of fissile fuel, such as uranium-233 (U-233) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239), split they emit neutrons, which in turn, split further nuclei, releasing energy. 
If the mass of fuel becomes super-critical then so many neutrons are emitted that an uncontrolled chain reaction takes place, releasing massive energy in a nuclear explosion. 
The smallest bomb would employ technology developed for atomic artillery shells during the 1950s. It would use a single spherical critical mass of Òalpha-phaseÓ Pu-239 (the densest form of the elementÕs six distinct crystal structures) weighing around 10.5 kg (23 lb) and measuring 10.1 cm (4 in) across.
Using a concept called Òlinear implosionÓ  an egg-shaped, lower-density, subcritical mass of plutonium can be compressed into a super-critical, higher density ball by embedding it in a cylinder of explosives which are detonated simultaneously from each end. As the detonation progresses towards the middle, the fissile mass is squeezed into a super-critical shape -- resulting in a nuclear explosion.
In addition, a beryllium ÒdeflectorÓ would reflect any lost neutrons back into the core and reduce the critical mass of the device.
If there should be suitcase bombs as described by Lebed, it is quite likely that they would use this artillery shell technology.
A portable weapon which forms a super-critical mass of as little as 10% above critical mass can produce explosions equivalent to 20 tons of conventional explosive. This relatively low yield is far more dangerous than conventional explosives due to the intense radiation emitted. A 20-ton fission explosion, for example, produces a 100%-lethal dose of radiation to anyone exposed within 300 metres (985 feet). 
A yield of 20 tons is also equal to the yield of the smallest and lightest nuclear weapon ever deployed by the U.S. military. -- the W-54, designed for use in Europe against Soviet troop formations, and fired from the Davy Crockett recoilless rifle.
/ENDS
Sources: Federation of American Scientists, The Brookings Institution, The Swords of Armageddon, by Chuck Hansen, Chuckelea Publishing, 1995.