October 10, 2001. Copyright, 2001, Graphic News. All rights reserved

Howard banking on tough asylum policy and terror war to win third election victory
By Elisabeth Ribbans

LONDON, October 10, Graphic News:  HE looks more the sheepish bureaucrat than a leaderly lion but since becoming AustraliaÕs 25th prime minister in March 1996, John Winston Howard -- now seeking a third term in office -- has been more pugnacious than some commentators suggest. The former lawyer has forced through a number of controversial reforms in the face of strong public resistance, beginning just weeks after his election when he moved to limit gun ownership in the wake of a massacre in the island state of Tasmania. There followed the contentious privatisation of telecommunications carrier, Telstra, the ending of compulsory trade union membership and a law to restrict AboriginesÕ land rights. A 10 percent good and sales tax (GST), introduced in 2000, is a more recent addition to his library of less-than-loved legislation. 

Anyone willing to make themselves unpopular cannot complain when they find theyÕve done just that. And three months ago, the 62-year-old premier looked set to win himself and his conservative Liberal-National coalition government little more than a bloody nose at the upcoming general election. A skilled debater but a lacklustre orator, the only message he appeared to be sending over to voters, increasingly concerned about education and health issues, was that it was time to head back to Labour -- the party whose 13-year reign HowardÕs Liberal Party ended five-and-a-half years ago. The fact that he had kept a firm hand on the economic tiller counted, apparently, for little. 

Today, however, John Howard, cricket fan and father of three, stands a very good chance of securing another innings on November 10. It is a change of fortunes that can be traced back to the arrival in Australian waters in late August of a Norwegian freighter, the Tampa. The prime ministerÕs refusal to allow the vessel to offload its cargo of 400 refugees -- mainly from Afghanistan and Iraq -- onto his countryÕs vast shores, prompted a surge in his approval ratings among immigrant-wary sections of the nationÕs 19.4 million citizenry. That toughness was reinforced shortly afterwards when Howard positioned himself shoulder-to-shoulder with President Bush in the war on terrorism, waving off with statesmanlike mien 1,550 Australian military personnel bound to join the U.S.-led action in Afghanistan. In short, the grimness of international events has cast a rather colourless leader in what seems to many to be a more attractive hue. 

Within the space of a few weeks, opposition candidate Kim Beazley found his centre-left Labour Party no longer a shoo-in but a sheepdog chasing HowardÕs 10-point poll lead. The 0.8 percent swing needed to shift the six-seat majority to which the Liberals were reduced at the 1998 general election, had become a huge challenge. Promising a A$1bn (US$500m) spending package for universities and schools, Beazley, 52, has fought to put domestic issues -- including hospital waiting lists and the collapse of Australian airline Ansett -- back on the agenda. Howard, meanwhile, has spent his A$1bn on tax breaks to families with newborn babies -- an attempt to deflect the ongoing tax flak over the GST. Keen to satisfy the seeming appetite for might, he has also pledged to raise defence spending. 

But it was LabourÕs domestic tack that was rewarded in late October, with local elections in the Australian Capital Territory seeing BeazleyÕs party triumph by 10 clear percentage points over the Liberals. And as polling day approaches, there are signs that the ratings gap is closing. AustraliaÕs 2001 election, once a foregone conclusion, now promises a fight to the bell.
/ENDS