October 18, 2001. Copyright, 2001, Graphic News. All rights reserved

Military Balance focuses on campaign against terror

LONDON, October 18, Graphic News:  A new strategic era dawned on September 11 following the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

Prior to the attacks, the year was characterised by the continuation of low-and mid-level conflict in much of the world and large-scale deployment of regular troops pitched against both state and non-state armed groups. The Middle East, yet again, was the area attracting most attention, the conflict having intensified during the summer with the Palestinians responding to the Israeli policy of Òselective targetingÓ with a wave of devastating suicide bombings.

But the priorities of international relations, the nature of regional politics, the shape of political alliances, the driving purpose of U.S. foreign policy, the evolving role of military forces and the risks of weapons of mass destruction were all affected by the epoch-making attack on America.

The U.S. has a newly defined enemy which is neither the old Soviet Union nor a potentially resurgent China, but international terrorism, especially that capable of kidnapping states from which to operate. The pursuit and defeat of this foe has become the overriding goal of the Bush administration.

For the campaign in Afghanistan to succeed it will be important to ensure that the right mix of individuals ultimately forms a government in Kabul. No one wants to be accused of imosing a regime on Afghanistan but failing to organise its shape will be an act of strategic negligence. In all probability, the United Nations is likely to be handed a challenge hugely greater than that which it took on in Cambodia or East Timor.

There will come a point at which the campaign against terrorism becomes routine, an integral part of international relations, as was the Cold War. Like the Cold War, the campaign will be punctuated by special crises and hot conflicts, but it will be harder to conduct, because the enemy is diverse and invisible, and victory will be even harder to determine.

In seeking to defeat terrorism with a global reach, the larger Western states will constantly be caught between the need to defeat certain deadly enemies in particular places, and engage in broad-based international social engineering. The campaign on international terrorism could well give Ògrand strategyÓ a new meaning.
/ENDS

Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies