May 3, 2000. Copyright, 2000, Graphic News. All rights reserved

DERBY GLORY RESTS LARGELY ON THE DRAW
By Midge Todhunter

LONDON, May 3, Graphic News:  PUNTERS beware Ð predictions as to who will win SaturdayÕs Kentucky Derby can be seriously influenced by the draw for the starting gate held two days before the race.

Until two years ago, the start positions for the big event held at the famous Churchill Downs racetrack in KentuckyÕs blue-grass country Ð best known across America as the ÒRun for the RosesÓ Ð was at best a pot-luck affair with connections taking little part.

But Churchill Downs president Tom Meeker decided to change all that in 1998. Rather than simply drawing a post position, and then the name of a horse assigned to that number, a random draw system now enables Derby horse connections to take a more active role.

Under the new format, the number drawn will represent the sequence in which the horseÕs representative can select a start stall. When all the numbers are drawn, a 10-minute discussion period will elapse while entrants consider their starting stall preference. Following the discussion period, each horseÕs connections will have 60 seconds to choose from the remaining post positions.

The procedure is used for the Derby and the Preakness Stakes, the first two legs of the U.S. Triple Crown.

The new system may make the draw more entertaining for all concerned but little changes the fact that those horses unlucky enough to get an outside position start with a severe disadvantage.

While any position from stalls one to five has an excellent chance, and six to 10 are good, anything above 15 has little hope, according to the Churchill racetrack statistics.

In the last 100 runnings of the great race, 12 winners have come out of stall one on the inside, while 10 winners have each trapped from stalls four and five, nine have been released from stalls two and ten, and eight each from stalls three and eight.

Far fewer winners have started above gate 12 and amazingly, not a single 20th century winner started from eitherÊgate 17 or 19.

However, in recent years there has been a glimmer of hope for the outside draws. In 1996, Grindstone won from stall 15 when beating 19 other opponents, while ex-London bookie Michael TaborÕs Thunder Gulch in 1995 and last yearÕs winner, Charismatic, both broke from gate 16, proving the luck of a bad draw can be overcome.
/ENDS