October 7, 1999. Copyright 1999. Graphic News. All rights reserved.

TOO MANY PEOPLE

LONDON, October 7, Graphic News: WORLD population will reach six billion on October 12, say the United NationÕs incredibly precise number-crunchers.
The six-billionth person will probably be born in Africa or India, destined to be poor, illiterate and ill-housed, with a life expectancy of perhaps 55 years, according to Tim Wirth, president of the UN Population Foundation.
The good news, Wirth said, is that overall population growth has slowed in the last five years, from about 100 million a year to about 78 million a year.
ÒThe downside is that in some parts of the world, thereÕs desperate population growth and it is increasing poverty greatly, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent.Ó
According to UN calculations world population has tripled in a single lifetime and doubled since 1960, with the last billion added in the last 12 years. But while 95 percent of population growth has been in poor countries, growth has almost stopped in Europe, North America and Japan.
Although population has grown at a slightly faster rate than globally-averaged food production per person since the mid 80s, optimists expect that technology Ð namely bio-technology Ð will ÒfixÓ it.
The parts of the world with the highest birth rates are not only poor, they are young, with 40 percent of the population in 62 countries under the age of 15. Worldwide, over a billion people are between ages 15 and 24, just entering or in the midst of their prime reproductive years.
Wirth refuted claims that the world can comfortably support such an expanding population.
ÒThe aspiration to an unfettered Western lifestyle is going to destroy the globe,Ó he said. ÒIt just canÕt continue the way it is. You canÕt have six billion people living the way people live in Manhattan or Los Angeles.Ó
Still, there has been measurable progress since 1960. The average number of children per family has declined from about six to a little less than three, and education, particularly female education, will bring fertility rates down to replacement levels by 2100.
However, the low-fertility projection means the average age of the worldÕs population, close to 20 at the start of this century, will rise to more than 40 by 2050. In Germany and Japan, where the median age is already close to 40, it will pass 50.
The future is a world of gray, with millions of oldies clamouring for pensions and medical aid as the planet ages.
If western bio-tech companies are unable to double global grain production then sub-Saharan Africa Ð where population is set to triple Ð and South Asia Ð where it will double Ð will become demographically trapped. Without indefinite food aid their course is set for a future of starvation and slaughter Ð the average human is unlikely ever to be so well-fed again.
/ENDS
Sources: Maurice King, University of Leeds, BMJ, Reuters