October 8, 1997. Copyright, 1997, Graphic News. All rights reserved

DEADLOCK LOOMS AT GLOBAL WARMING TALKS
By Oliver Burkeman

LONDON, October 8, Graphic News- JAPANESE Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto looks set to preside over politically damaging deadlock at Kyoto in December, when 160 signatories to the UNÕs Convention on Climate Change Š agreed at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit Š meet to set binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions in industrialised countries.
Gases like carbon dioxide, produced by burning fossil fuels, are thought to trap heat in the earthÕs atmosphere, causing flooding and extreme weather conditions. They also increase sickness: pathogens thrive and immunity suffers as temperatures rise. 
Rio negotiators agreed to return emissions in developed countries to 1990 levels by 2000, but they are increasing almost everywhere.
Japan proposes a cut to five percent below 1990 levels by 2012, dismissing the European UnionÕs 15 percent target as unworkable. But Britain supports a 20 percent cut, and Australia advocates a policy tied to individual nations' economic health, and says that China, Italy and Spain agree. Activists are also divided: the World Wide Fund for Nature wants a 10 percent cut from 1990 levels by 2005, while the Climate Action Network demands a 20 percent reduction in the same timeframe.
But any effective agreement will require the co-operation of America, which consumes 25 percent of the worldÕs energy and emits 22 percent of greenhouse gases. President ClintonÕs meetings with industrialists have revealed the extent of domestic opposition to his pro-reduction stance, overshadowing White House discussions intended to provide U.S. negotiators with targets to take to Kyoto. Industry groups have launched a $15m advertising campaign arguing that reductions would force cutbacks damaging AmericaÕs competitiveness and merely displace environmental problems. 
ŌThis has less to do with federal governmentÕs anti-UN bias than with industrialists straightforwardly opposing policies they see as detrimental to their interests,Õ said Dr Jim Whitman, of Cambridge UniversityÕs Global Security Programme.
The biggest sticking-point will be on developing countries, where rapid industrialisation relies on fossil fuels and deforestation exacerbates carbon dioxide production. Industrialised nations seek universal cuts, but a coalition led by the Alliance of Small Island States insists the wealthier North must act first.
Current British Meteorological Office estimates predict a 2”C rise in surface temperatures between 1990 and 2100, lower than the UNÕs 2”-6”C figure. Global temperatures had previously risen by just 1”C since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
ENDS

Sources: Climate Action Network, British Meteorological Office, Reuter, Cambridge University Global Security Programme.