September 10, 1997. Copyright, 1997, Graphic News. All rights reserved

VIRTUAL WATER
By Sonya Dowsett, Science Correspondent

LONDON, September 10, Graphic News- People around the world are being lulled into a state of complacency about water shortage by politicians who want to stay in power, according to a scientist speaking at the annual British Association conference in Leeds.
The World Bank warns that fresh water will become the natural resource most likely to cause wars in the 21st century. It claims that chronic water shortages affect about 40 percent of the the worldÕs population in 80 countries. Around one billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. With the world population set to double by the middle of the next century, the problem can only get worse. But Middle Eastern politicians, eager to be re-elected, persist in playing it down. The desert countries, where demand exceeded availability in the 1970s, save massively on agricultural water use by importing grain crops, then use their limited water supplies solely for domestic and industrial use. Therefore the amount of water available for everyday use doesnÕt seem to be any less to the population,  who continue to use it as freely as if there was not a chronic shortage.
Water used to grow crops exported to the Middle East is known as virtual water. Although technically incalculable, it is of huge economic value to the desert countries. Meanwhile many countries in temperate climates continue to use water as a free resource, particularly in agriculture which uses mainly soil and groundwater, a dramatic underestimate of its global value.
ÔFood water is big water,Õ says Professor Tony Allan of the University of London, Ôit takes about one thousand tonnes of water to grow one tonne of grain. Domestic use is negligible in comparison. Instead of pretending that the water balance is improving, politicians should be trying to work out how much water is hidden in the global trading system, which no one really understands.Õ
This will become more apparent as the worldÕs population increases and its demand for water becomes more pressing. Some difficult changes in water consumption habits and careful management of existing resources to ensure they are allocated to high yield activities will be needed if conflict is to be avoided in the future.

Source: Water Issues Group

NOTE TO EDITORS:
British Association Annual Festival of Science, Leeds, September 7-12, 1997

Contact: Professor Tony Allan, Water Issues Group, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Fax: +44 (0)171 436 3844