ࡱ> >@=a )jbjb *2)2222222JJJJ V 1 nnnnnnnn  , R9 n 2nnnnn 22nn  n2n2n F$j2222n 22 b KJ2 v  01 2ddAugust 1, 1997. Copyright, 1997, Graphic News. All rights reserved El Nio The Unkind Child Meteorologists have warned this years El Nio weather system may have arrived early and could match the century's worst, which blighted crops in Indonesia, Australia, the Philippines and southern Africa after a blistering drought in 1982-83. Nasa satellites have measured sea-surface temperatures up five degrees centigrade along the Peruvian coast. Concern over the 1997-98 Nio has already driven up tea, coffee and cocoa prices, as the end-of-year rains in east Africa and the monsoons in India and Sri Lanka are tamed by its effects. El Nios chief victims are some of the poorer countries and areas of South America, especially Peru. For most of the year, Perus coast is washed by cold, nutrient-rich waters that sustain a massive fish population. It has been a regular occurrence for these cool waters to be replaced by warmer ones around Christmas, slightly reducing fish stocks, but exceptionally warm currents now remain in the Southern Pacific for months or years at a time, occurring every two to seven years. Nios decimate the regional fish population and threaten storms, droughts and high winds around the world. The mechanics of El Nio are well understood, though the cause is still a mystery. Normally, the Pacific is fanned by the constant breath of the trade winds: east-to-west breezes that push warm surface water away from the oceans eastern side off Peru and Chile creating a metre-high surge of warmer water along the coasts of Australia and the Philippines. Off the eastern Pacific coastlines cold water wells up from the Antarctic Humboldt current to replace this surge, like a huge conveyor belt. This water carries nitrate and phosphate nutrients, which feed the plankton and hence the fish. If the winds slacken briefly, warm water begins to slosh back across the Pacific, slowing the upwelling of the Humboldt current. The warmer the eastern ocean gets, the warmer and lighter the air above it becomes. This reduces the difference in pressure across the ocean. Since the difference in pressure makes the trade winds blow, the easterly winds weaken further, letting the warm water continue its eastward advance. This reverses the South Pacifics weather system, shifting it 6,000km (4,000 miles) to the east. The tropical rainstorms that usually drench Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Thailand and northern Australia are shifted eastwards so that Colombia, Peru and Chile get a soaking. The last big Nio in 1982-83 the worst this century cost some $13 billion in lost livelihood worldwide. It had catastrophic results for Peru; GDP plunged by 12 percent, agricultural output fell by 8.5 percent and production in the economically vital fishing industry fell by 40 percent. The 1997-98 Nio threatens to be at least as destructive. In Australia, John Nicholson, of the Country Fire Authority, says that Victoria is headed for another Ash Wednesday-type bush fire catastrophe if the El Nio persists; Nicholson claims the forests have had less rainfall during the winter of 1997 than was had during the whole of 1982, the year of the Ash Wednesday fires. The Australian Wheat Board warns that serious consequences are feared if the weather pattern does not turn around soon. Dryness in Australias grainbelt this year has occurred during the least growth-oriented phase of the wheat crop cycle, but crops are dying in western areas of New South Wales, with reports in some areas there that crops will not be harvested. In the Philippines the 1982-83 drought destroyed 590,000 tonnes of unmilled rice and devastated 170,000 tonnes of corn. With the 1997-98 drought a foregone conclusion, agriculture experts predict rice harvests will drop by 15 percent to 2.7 million tonnes in the first half of 1998. In addition the government has dug some 1,500 wells to irrigate farmland nationwide. Damage to corn crops in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa could reduce world supplies by 10 million tonnes, 1.5 percent of world consumption. Indonesia, the worlds biggest supplier of Robusta coffee beans, is suffering severe drought; the harvest is expected to be 25 percent below normal. In Thailand , the national sugar cane board predicts the 1997-98 crop could fall below 15 percent. The catch of fish along Colombias Pacific coast is expected to be 20 percent below normal and catches by Peruvian fishermen are falling. Resevoirs in Colombia are down by a fifth, increasing risks of malaria and cholera. Named after Jesus, El Nio The Christ Child shows scant mercy. 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