March 10, 1996. Copyright, 1996, Graphic News. All rights reserved

BY THE FOOTFALL OF EARLY MORNING
By Nicholas Booth, Science Editor

LONDON, March 10, Graphic News Ð Early tomorrow morning (Tuesday 12 March), an uncontrollable Chinese spy satellite will re-enter the EarthÕs atmosphere and possibly crash land on mainland Britain. The FSW-1 satellite, about the size of a VW Beetle and weighing 2 tons, is unusual as it is designed to survive re-entry with its precious cargo of photographic film. Though it is most likely to land in the oceans, which cover nearly three-quarters of the EarthÕs surface, many local authorities will be on stand-by in case the satelliteÕs mortal remains are strewn over heavily-populated areas. This, space experts stress, is highly unlikely.

Unlike U.S. spy satellites which transmit encoded TV pictures back to Earth, the Chinese use large film cameras, the reels from which are later recovered by the Chinese Army. Usually, each mission takes just over a week (limited by the film available).  The FSW-1 satellite was launched in October 1993 atop a Long March rocket, similar to one that exploded on the launch pad in February. When Chinese authorities commanded FSW-1 to return, it malfunctioned and effectively switched itself off for reasons which are not known. It has since been out of contact, uncontrollable and at the mercy of drag exerted by the outermost reaches of the EarthÕs upper atmosphere. 

Though the satellite may come down in Britain - its northernmost track passes over Scotland - there is an even slighter chance that it may orientate itself to land as planned. This leads to the bizarre possibility that the satelliteÕs parachute may be triggered so that Ð  as one noted space tracker told the magazine Aviation Week Ð it could come Ôfloating down onto Manhattan, the White House lawn or the Champs ElyseesÕ. Normally, most ÔrogueÕ satellites burn up on re-entry, although a handful have survived, with no loss of life or damage to the ground.

The FSW satellites are being touted in the west  as recoverable capsules which can be bought for scientific missions off the shelf but the military versions remain highly classified. As a result, many governments will be interested in recovering the capsule no matter where it lands or in what condition. The exact time of its entering the atmosphere cannot be predicted because the drag exerted on the satellite depends on how the atmosphere expands and contracts due to heating from the Sun which cannot be modelled accurately.

Sources: Aviation Week, Royal Greenwich Observatory.

NOTE TO EDITORS: For the latest information on estimating where and when the satellite will land, call Peter Andrews at the Royal Greenwich Observatory on (01223) 374000 or on Monday evening U.S. Space Command at Cheyenne Mountain on (001) 719 554 3379.