..HH +6GzHH d'h,<KTLLF`F` 33of (kqHH. ?.HnHnHn©Bg/.`0@??./. N bP0.N*bv# P r N?FFENS Apple File ExchangeFile ExchangeX Helvetica Helvetica 0d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .H   8GP"Ej"26:>BSeptember 12, 1995. Copyright, 1995, Graphic News. All rights reserved NB EDITORS -- GRAPHIC AND STORY EMBARGOED TILL 5PM BST WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13. DECLINING HARVEST AT SEA By Nicholas Booth, Science Editor LONDON, September 13, Graphic News - The worlds fish stocks are declining so rapidly that they may be reaching a limit unable to be sustained indefinitely, a British scientiiiined delegates at the British Association meeting in Newcastle this afternoon. Professor John Beddington of Imperial Collest warned delegates at the British Association meeting in Newcastle this afternoon. Professor John Beddington of Imperial Collegessian Mir space complex. 1997: City Co<g Dkhormation contact the Japanese Embassy in London, tel: (+44 1 presented new calculations which suggest that there may be an annual shortfall of fish products by 30 million tonnes by the year 2010. Global evidence indicates that the levels of the marine fish catch is approaching some form of biological limit, says Professor Beddington. Beddington, who heads the colleges Renewable Resources Group, gave a public lecture on the limits of harvesting the seas. His group has been heavily involved in performing assessments for the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organiworldwide for a number of governments. He suggests that there is no panacea for the problem and its solution will require both economic and biological insight. It is not news that fisheries are a problem, Beddington says. But we need to recognise the that the problem wont go away. It is now clear that the expression that there are plenty more fish in the sea is no longer relevant in the 1990s. Since 1950, the worlds fish catch has increased almost fivefold as fishermen have sailed into new seas to meet the demand for consumption. The fishing industry has grown twice as fast as the global catch the total annual consumption of fish which at face value seems also to be on the increase. But the figures are deceptive. The catch has gone up because of greater numbers of fishing boats, Beddington says. But the catch per boat is getting smaller. And this worrying trend is masked by the fact that the fish being caught are getting smaller, fundamentally affecting the environment of the oceans. Recent studies show that the current levels of catches are absorbing a third of the energy available from marine algae in the most commercially important marine ecosystems. This pressure is unlikely to be sustainable, Professor Beddington says. According to new calculations by Beddingtons group, even if consumption remains at 1993 levels, there will be a shortfall of just under 30 million tonnes of fish ion tonnes of fish remains at 1993 levels, there will be a shortfall of just under 30 million tonnes of fish worldwide given expected increases in the size of the worlds population. This is a conservative estimate, because all evidence thus far shows that consumption will increase. Professor Beddington suggests that the increase in the price of fish will create even more incentives to overfish. Many authorities have suggested that stricter regulations will break this vicious circle. Yet Professor Beddington argues that they only work when they are scientifically useful. Simple analysis of most regulations currently in force indicates that fishermen will remain highly tempted to break them, he says. For most countries, the chances of their fishermen being detected are small about one in a thousand chance, for some. And to compensate for over-fishing, the penalty will have to be several million dollars per offence, which Professor Beddington notes is probably going to be politically unacceptable. Incredibly, the Food & Agriculture Organisation estimates that the real cost of fishing is $50 billion higher than revenue. In other words, subsidies are keeping fishermen in business, particularly those whose governments are member states of the European Union which increased its level of support from $80 million in 1983 to $580 million in 1990. Massive subsidies could be reduced with better fisheries management, Professor Beddington says. Even a small investment in managing stocks would be sound, both financially and environmentally. Sources: Centre for Environmental Technology, Imperial College, UN Food & Agrgriculture Organisation, Marine Resources Assessment Group 6\ 7  Ii L L M N Xi [ ` d g l u |$ 2% "0J@g ?< LF` jl4 . m PCLF` g. g0r-LF`0g "0J@g ?< LF` 0g r,_j0_i0gb f -. -.f@ 'A@`